The LMS Industry Isn’t Where You Think It Is

This article was first shared on my LinkedIn profile, and I’m excited to bring it here for our blog readers.

I’ve been thinking a lot about how industries change, especially our own. I found a useful framework to analyse industry change from Alex Smith’s excellent newsletter, “The Hidden Path”. He outlines five strategic eras that most industries move through, each defined by the market’s needs at that moment. It made me wonder: where does that leave the LMS and L&D industry? Looking back over the past few years, you can start to see patterns and maybe even get a glimpse of what’s coming next.

The five eras come from Alex’s initial framework of three “strategic eras”: supply, performance and democratisation.

He describes these eras as follows:

Supply

At the very beginning, success is simple. You just need to get the product out there. People want access, and the companies that can deliver it at scale usually win.

Performance

Once the supply is sorted, the focus shifts to quality. Customers aren’t just looking for something—they want the best version. This is where differentiation starts to matter.

Democratisation

After performance peaks, things often get too complicated or premium. Someone steps in and makes the solution easier, simpler, and more accessible to everyone.

After democratisation, it isn’t entirely clear what would happen next, as some industries can feel complete. The product is now available, of good quality, not overly complicated and accessible. Alex suggests two additional eras that can happen to an industry after the first three eras are complete: specialisation (not necessarily an era in its own right) and redefinition, which he defines as:

Specialisation (can be a subset of democratisation)

When the product becomes common, companies start carving out niches. They focus on specific segments, tailoring their offer to particular audiences.

Redefinition

Eventually, the real game-changer comes: questioning the fundamentals of the category. This isn’t just a new version of the same thing. It’s something adjacent but meaningfully different, effectively creating a new category.

Alex also acknowledges that his theory is not perfect, as some industries are impossible to redefine. Some industries can, for example, remain spinning in specialisation, as they are impossible to redefine.

(Note: While Alex uses the hotel industry to describe the 5 eras, I’ve anonymised it somewhat for brevity.)

How this plays out in the LMS industry

Looking back at the year, this framework helps us see where learning platforms and the broader L&D ecosystem are at.

Supply

In the early days of digital learning, organisations needed basic systems to host courses, track compliance, and deliver learning at scale. Early Moodle and Totara deployments met this need. Back then, success was about uptime and reliability.

Performance

Once a basic LMS became standard, expectations went up. Clients wanted smoother usability, deeper reporting, stronger security, tighter HR integrations, and more control for admins. Vendors competed to build the most capable, polished platform.

Democratisation

LMSs are accessible to almost anyone. You no longer need a huge budget or a team of specialists to get started. SaaS deployment, intuitive admin tools, and lower licensing costs mean smaller teams, nonprofits, and growing companies can launch learning quickly and affordably.

Specialisation

Now we see differentiation through focus. Some platforms specialise in microlearning, coaching, simulations, skills tracking, or industry-specific compliance. Some of these approaches really solve problems. Others are too narrow or don’t integrate well with organisational workflows.

Redefinition

The next shift may challenge how we think about learning systems altogether. Are we just tracking training, or are we actually building capability? Are we delivering courses, or enabling performance? Are LMSs the core platform, or just part of a wider talent and skills infrastructure? Early signs of redefinition include skills ecosystems, AI-driven development paths, and systems that connect learning directly to business outcomes.

Industries move at different speeds, and so does the LMS industry.

Not every organisation moves through these eras at the same pace. Some are still in supply, focused on basic delivery and compliance. Others have moved into performance, demanding sophisticated reporting, integrations, and better user experiences. Some are experimenting with specialisation or even redefinition of concepts.

Because these eras coexist across different players, the LMS industry doesn’t progress in a neat, sequential way where everyone moves from Supply → Performance → Democratisation → Specialisation → Redefinition at the same time. Instead, multiple eras exist simultaneously, overlapping across organisations and market segments. In that sense, the LMS industry is multi-layered rather than linear.

This isn’t a formal assertion about the industry as a whole, just an observation of its current pace and uneven adoption.

Looking ahead

Thinking about these eras helps us step back from the day-to-day and see the bigger picture. The question isn’t just what features vendors are adding. It’s whether we’re optimising for the era we’re in now, or preparing for the one that’s coming next (and in some sense, what era our customers are in).

Heading into 2026, the most meaningful shifts may be less about course delivery and more about how learning actually drives capability, adaptability, and performance. Platforms will still matter, but the real opportunities lie in how we use them to make learning genuinely impactful. Over the coming months, I’ll delve deeper into these shifts in an attempt to make sense of where our industry is headed and how we can adapt.

You can read the next installment in this series on LinkedIn.